K-State’s new coach inherits a defense gutted by the transfer portal and a win total of 8.5, and oddsmakers trust him more than the preseason power rankings do.
A Homecoming With Modest Expectations
Kansas State hired Collin Klein as its 36th head football coach in December, replacing Chris Klieman after a 6-6 finish in 2025. Klein played quarterback at K-State from 2009 to 2012, finishing third in Heisman voting his senior year, and spent nine seasons on the Wildcat staff before leaving to become Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator. Klein inherits a program that lost several defensive starters to the transfer portal, including linebacker Austin Romaine and safeties Qua Moss and Daniel Cobbs, and brought in twelve defensive transfers of his own to try to plug the gaps before fall camp opens.
An analyst who covers Big 12 coaching changes called the hire low-risk in theory and unproven in practice. “Everybody in Manhattan loves this hire on paper,” the analyst said. “But Klein has never called defensive personnel decisions as a head coach before, and this roster needed more patchwork than most first-year guys get handed.”
Avery Johnson’s Reset Season
Quarterback Avery Johnson is back for his second full season as the starter after throwing for 2,385 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2025, adding 477 yards and eight scores on the ground. It was, by most accounts, a down year for a player who entered last season with far more hype, and Klein’s staff has spent the offseason trying to simplify his reads rather than overhaul his mechanics. Running back Joe Jackson returns to share the backfield workload, giving Klein at least one proven weapon on offense while the defense gets rebuilt around new pass rushers Wendell Gregory and Elijah Hill.
“Johnson has all the physical tools, but last year’s offense asked him to do too much improvising,” one observer following fall camp said. “If Klein simplifies the passing game the way he did as offensive coordinator, Johnson’s numbers should look a lot more like his freshman tape.”
What Kansas Bettors Are Watching Ahead of Fall Camp
According to data from BetKansas, which covers the latest Kansas sportsbook promo codes alongside state-specific operator guidance, one analyst noted: “Joe Jackson doesn’t get talked about outside the state, but he is exactly the kind of back who keeps an offense functional while a quarterback rebuilds his confidence. Klein needs him to be the constant while everything else around him changes.”
The schedule gives Klein a real chance to start fast. Five of the Wildcats’ first six games are at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and K-State avoids Texas Tech, BYU and Utah, the three teams sitting above them in Big 12 title odds this preseason.
Yet national writers projected Kansas State as low as tenth in the conference in an early power ranking, even as sportsbooks list the Wildcats with the fourth-best odds to win the Big 12, behind only Texas Tech, BYU and Utah. FanDuel has set Kansas State’s season win total at 8.5, tied with two of those three teams ahead of them on the odds board.
What Big 12 Media Days Signal
Klein is making his first appearance at Big 12 Media Days this month as a head coach, a different kind of spotlight than the one he stood under as a player or as an assistant. How he handles that stage, and how much clarity he offers about a defense still finding its identity, will shape outside expectations heading into August. The oddsmakers have already made their read. Whether the rest of the league catches up to it is the question Klein’s first season will answer.
“I’ve watched every homecoming coaching hire disappoint at some point, but this roster isn’t as thin as the outside rankings make it look,” a fan wrote after spring practice wrapped. “Give Klein through October before writing the season off.”
Klein’s own spring comments about the roster he inherited, and the coaching staff he rebuilt around it, give a clearer look at how he plans to close that gap between the rankings and the odds board than any single stat can.
